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ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT IN KYRGYZSTAN UNDERSCORES SLIDE TOWARD INSTABILITY
4/12/06

Concerns about Kyrgyzstan’s political stability are rising following an assassination attempt April 12 against a prominent civil society figure.

The attack against Edil Baisalov -- head of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, a Bishkek non-governmental organization – occurred as he was leaving the organization’s offices in central Bishkek at approximately 6 pm local time. He suffered a wound in the back of his head, but doctors could not immediately determine whether the wound was caused by a bullet, or by a blunt object. The lone assailant, who was not immediately apprehended, was described as a "young man of Kyrgyz nationality," the AKIpress news agency reported.

Witnesses to the incident reported hearing a bang, as if a pistol, possibly equipped with a silencer, had gone off. Baisalov, who only briefly lost consciousness, was quoted by AKIpress as saying, "It was a clap. There is a hole [in my head], but I am alive." After suffering the wound, Baisalov’s driver hustled him into his car and sped off to a nearby hospital. Doctor’s now believe Baisalov’s life is not threatened, but say the wound will require extensive treatment.

Kyrgyzstan has experienced frequent spasms of political violence since the Tulip revolution swept Askar Akayev’s old regime from power in March 2005. Prime Minister Feliks Kulov, who visited Baisalov in the hospital, characterized the assassination attempt as politically motivated.

In early April, Baisalov led an NGO effort to organize mass demonstrations, calling on President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s administration to vigorously pursue an anti-crime and corruption agenda. Baisalov had also been vocal in his opposition to a Supreme Court decision that enabled reputed organized crime boss Ryspek Akmatbayev to contest a parliamentary by-election. Akmatbayev subsequently won the parliamentary race. But the head of the country’s Central Election Commission (CEC), Tuigunaly Abdraimov, announced April 11 that Akmatbayev would be temporarily barred from taking his seat, pending judicial review of a January murder case in which the MP-elect was a defendant. In the initial trial, Akmatbayev was acquitted of the murder charge against him, but officials are now probing whether any improprieties occurred during the proceedings.

The assassination attempt sent shock waves through Kyrgyzstan’s NGO sector. Medet Tiulegenov, the executive director of the Soros Foundation – Kyrgyzstan, suggested that the incident could fuel criticism of the Bakiyev administration for not taking a tough stand against rampant crime and corruption. "Today’s attempt to take the life of a civil society leader signifies yet another manifestation of the deteriorating governance of Kyrgyzstan," Tiulegenov said. [Both EurasiaNet and the Soros Foundation – Kyrgyzstan are affiliated with the New York-based Open Society Institute].

Bakiyev, Kulov and members of parliament have been locked in a three-way power struggle in recent months. There is widespread suspicion in Bishkek that the Bakiyev administration engineered the court decision that reversed the CEC-imposed prohibition and allowed Akmatbayev to run.

Akmatbayev, via an attorney, denied involvement in the assassination attempt against Baisalov. Kulov, meanwhile, told reporters that the incident underscores the need for a comprehensive anti-crime offensive, hinting that only such measures could prevent Kyrgyzstan’s descent into lawlessness. The president must give the government the power to "undertake measures to restore law-and-order in the country. Otherwise the consequences for the nation’s future are already known," Kulov told reporters.

Kyrgyzstan has been the scene of geopolitical competition between Russia and the United States in recent years. However, there are indications that both states are alarmed by the country’s burgeoning disorder. US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Richard Boucher urged Bakiyev to implement stabilization measures during talks held April 11 in Bishkek. Meanwhile, in an interview with the Regnum news agency, Russian political analyst Arkady Dubnov indicated that Moscow policymakers are chagrined with Bakiyev’s conduct.

"The [parliamentary] victory of Ryspek Akmatbayev was a surprise for the Russian leadership," Dubnov stated. The Kremlin had made its concerns about stability known, and right up until the by-election "Moscow assumed that the Kyrgyz leadership would not allow such a development [Akmatbayev’s win]."

"The threat of a new wave of instability in Kyrgyzstan is not in the interest of either of the two world powers [The United States and Russia]," Dubnov added.

# posted by Dan @ 11:53:00 AM